Point of Order! How an Open GOP Convention Would Work
What if Mitt Romney doesn't have nomination by Tampa?
March 4, 2012 — --
The convention hall was like a circus tent, hot, sweaty, full of the blare of band music and the shoving of crowds. There were 1,094 delegates, by turns tense, delighted, disgruntled, or just plain sleepy. There were 1,000 newsmen, darting around with the desperate air of men whose pockets have just been picked, and 10,000 people in the galleries who cheered on their heroes and booed their villains. At times everybody seemed to be moving at once--seeking another vote, raising another banner, trying to make a deal, running down a rumor, hunting for a Coke or an aspirin tablet. ...The show moved quickly to its climax. The political horse trades were arranged, the hotel room doors knocked on, the promises made and broken. ...
Dewey men knew quite well that no applause meter nominates presidents. In two ballots Dewey was so close to a majority that everyone else gave in on the third.
-LIFE Magazine, July 5, 1948
The last time it happened was in 1948, well before the modern era of conventions as infomercials.
With Philadelphia's Convention Hall reaching 102 degrees, the wilting Republican delegates picked Thomas Dewey on the third round of voting, after leading challenger Robert Taft failed to marshal conservatives against the moderate front-runner.
Candidates and prominent supporters met in nearby hotel suites, elevators got clogged, and hopes of a stop-Dewey unity ticket briefly arose. Taft stayed on for two ballots, with even darker horses running behind him in Minnesota's Harold Stassen and Pennsylvania's Edward Martin, but Dewey won out after all three dropped out.
Since then, a few conventions have decided uncertain GOP primaries, but none have endured past the first round of voting. Both parties reformed their nominating systems in the 1970s, and state primaries have since enjoyed primacy, with party leaders less able to choose nominees behind closed doors.
This year, with three conservative dark horses hanging on against Mitt Romney, there is a slim chance -- but a chance nonetheless -- that the underdogs will refuse to give way; that Romney will fly to Tampa, Fla., this August without the requisite 1,144 delegates; and that hours of multi-round convention votes will ensue, dragging out the already-dragged-out Republican primary just a bit longer.
Unless Romney's competitors give way, the former governor may need backing from the GOP's 126 superdelegates, Republicans who vote by virtue of their position in the party, in order to reach the magic number. It's mathematically impossible for Romney to win 1,144 delegates before May 29, when Texas votes, without them.
It already looks as if the 2012 primary might end in negotiation. Romney and Newt Gingrich met, more or less secretly, around 6:30 a.m. at Romney's hotel the day before the Louisiana primary. Three weeks earlier the two had gathered with Rick Santorum offstage, at a forum organized by Mike Huckabee in Wilmington, Ohio, and the three agreed to oppose any unvetted candidate who might glide in and snatch the nomination at a brokered convention. The question may not be whether the back-bench candidates will deal their way out of the running, but when: in other words, whether or not they'll wait until Tampa.
Just what can we expect to happen on the floor of the Tampa Bay Times Forum, if the 2012 convention devolves into that kind of old-timey mess?
The First Ballot
For starters, Newt Gingrich might not be on it.
To appear on the first convention ballot, it takes five state wins -- or, more accurately, the demonstrated support of a plurality of delegates from five states, pursuant to this GOP convention rule:
[40] (b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a plurality of the delegates from each of five (5) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination.
Gingrich has only won two states, but he can still make the ballot without winning another three. Delegates from seven states (Iowa, Minnesota, Wyoming, Maine, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, and Montana) are free to support whomever they choose, regardless of statewide primary/caucus results.
Regardless, Gingrich may have to convince his own delegates, which he won in Georgia and South Carolina, to vote for him despite their votes not counting, or to vote uncommitted. (Which they can do; Ron Paul received votes in 2008.) It's unclear whether Georgia and South Carolina delegates will remain bound to Gingrich if he's not on the first ballot: state-party rules are silent on the matter, and officials at the Georgia or South Carolina state parties could not yet say how they would to handle that situation, should it arise.
The party will find some way for candidates to verify five-state support before the voting begins, a Republican National Committee official said.
What It Takes to Win
The simple answer: 1,144 votes.
To become the nominee, a candidate must win a majority of the votes entitled to be cast, per GOP convention rules, so even if some of the 2,286 delegates vote "uncommitted," for a non-qualifying candidate, or decline to vote at all, the magic number won't change.
Multiple Voting Rounds: What Happens?
If no candidate wins on the first ballot, the convention will transform incrementally into an all-out floor fight.
Republican delegates will become progressively less tethered to primary results, as voting rounds come and go. Some states' bylaws "bind" delegates based on statewide results through the first round of convention voting; some bind them for multiple voting rounds.
Should the convention reach a third round of voting, it will mostly become a free-for-all, with campaigns left to woo delegates on their own.
How a New Candidate Could Arise
After a couple of rounds of voting, anyone will be able to win the Republican presidential nomination. Sarah Palin? Yep. Chris Christie? Sure. Bill Maher? Anyone.
The trick is being nominated to the ballot -- getting the chance to prove five-state support. That will require clearing a slightly higher procedural hurdle.
Suspension of Rules
A motion to suspend the rules shall always be in order, but only when made by authority of a majority of the delegates from any state and seconded by a majority of the delegates from each of five (5) or more other states severally
It's likely that the chair of a state delegation would shout "Mr. Chairman!" at the convention chair, who would choose to recognize the delegate who wished to speak. The state-delegation chair would then make a motion to "suspend the rules and nominate" this new candidate for the nomination.
It's unclear whether that candidate would need to follow the same procedure other candidates used to verify the support of a plurality of delegates from five states, having fairly obviously attained it with the motion to suspend the rules, but it would likely be up to the convention chair.
With 1,144 votes in the next round, that candidate could win.
What a Brokered Convention Would Look Like
The Tampa Bay Times Forum could turn into a veritable salad spinner of deal making, shouting, and general cacophony.
House Speaker John Boehner will probably chair the proceedings, according to a prominent Republican with knowledge of convention procedure. (Boehner did it in Minneapolis in 2008.) While a U.S. House member traditionally serves as chair, it doesn't have to be the speaker, according to an RNC official. As the GOP's reigning House-rules expert, House Rules Committee Chairman David Dreier (R-Calif.) could be an alternative.
Should one faction try to add a new candidate to the ballot, the convention could resemble a GOP caucus -- and those haven't looked too good lately.
Republicans use the rules of the House of Representatives as their basic set of convention rules, where there are gaps in RNC Chairman Priebus's convention document. That means delegates will be yelling "Mr. Chairman!" (or, if Boehner chairs, "Mr. Speaker!") to try to get the chair's attention on points of procedure, and potentially to add a new candidate to the ballot.
Opposing factions will undoubtedly yell "Point of order!" -- questioning whether motions and proceedings have followed the rules. This is the objection Ron Paul supporters have raised at GOP caucuses.
To end discussion and vote on a motion, or on a nomination, delegates and state chairs may motion for the "previous question" -- what House members request from the Speaker when they want to close debate and move to a vote.
If the rules are suspended, chaos could follow, as the convention could devolve into a lengthy discussion of what new rules to adopt, unless the chair swiftly deals with the matter. GOP rules provide the same requirements for nominating vice-presidential candidates, and it's possible that presidential/VP ticket combinations could effectively arise.
Through all of this, the only people allowed on the convention floor will be delegates, convention officers, RNC members, and incumbent GOP governors, senators, and U.S. representatives -- meaning candidates will have to entrust their whip operations to party members, prominent endorsers, and the delegates themselves.
As in the House of Representatives, it will be up to the convention chair whom to recognize and when, as well as which motions and questions to consider.
If the GOP nominating contest winds down to its bitterest possible end, no one will envy the person who sits at the head of that meeting.
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