Why Marcus Mariota transcends the Oregon offense
— -- This story appears in ESPN The Magazine's April 27 NFL Draft Issue. Subscribe today!
THE FIRST THING you notice about Marcus Mariota is that he looks like the prototypical NFL quarterback, only better. He stands tall (6-foot-4) and stable (222 pounds), like Brady and Eli. He runs fluidly (4.52 40), like Russell and Kaepernick. He throws quickly and over the top, like Rodgers, with more than adequate velocity to win in the NFL.
So why, according to draft analysts, is Oregon's Heisman winner polling a distant second to Florida State's Jameis Winston as the No. 1 pick? You won't find the answer in the stats. Winston threw four more interceptions in 13 games last season than Mariota did in his 41-game career. Since 2012, Mariota has won 36 starts -- including a 59-20 Rose Bowl rout of Winston's Seminoles. That's seven more W's than any other college starter in that span. You won't find it in background checks either. Mariota's file, by all accounts, is stain-free, just what you'd hope for from the face of your franchise.
So what's the problem? Oregon's offense didn't consistently ask Mariota to command a huddle, decipher complex defenses or throw in tight windows. The perception is also that the Ducks' fast pace and simplistic route tree rarely forced Mariota to make the NFL-level reads that became second nature to Winston in Florida State's pro set. But to view Mariota through such a basic lens would be a mistake, according to ESPN analyst Jon Gruden. "People don't always realize Oregon runs a lot of NFL concepts," he says. For example, Mariota has made full-field reads before picking a side to attack, à la NFL QBs. He's used progression passing concepts to great effect, finding third and fourth receivers with ease. Mariota went so far as to say his favorite throw was the seam route against three-deep coverage -- a ball he'll be asked to complete with regularity in the pros. As he said at the combine, "You have to put enough touch on it to get it over the linebacker and enough zip to [beat] the safety."
Meanwhile, the pro game is evolving toward Mariota's skill set. Since 2008, NFL shotgun use has nearly doubled, and teams now use three-plus wide receivers on close to half of first downs, up from 31 percent. While no NFL offense matches Oregon's playcall speed, 12 teams averaged less than 38 seconds between plays last season, compared with seven teams per season from 2010 to 2013.
None of this assures Mariota's NFL success, of course. But when we dived deep into Mariota's game tape from a home win over No. 7 Michigan State last September, it showed that the QB might enter the NFL on stronger footing than the mythology surrounding the Ducks' offense might suggest. Take a look for yourself at how he executed two staples of Oregon's offense, Z Spot Bengal and Bubble Y Over.
Yes, life on the field as an NFL quarterback moves fast. Fortunately, speed has never been Marcus Mariota's problem.
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